Was that a "hit" ?

The big earthquake just been. Did Ken Ring's predictions "hit" it?

According to my previous betting schedule, I wagered these bets:

• 3 chips on ±1 day surrounding the lunar equinox [ paying 14:1 ]
• 3 chips on ±1 day surrounding the lunar perigee [ paying 14:1 ]
• 2 chips on ±1 day surrounding the point of maximum declination [ paying 14:1 ]
• 2 chips on ±1 day surrounding the full moon [ paying 14:1 ]
• 2 chips on ±1 day surrounding the new moon [ paying 14:1 ]
• 1 chip on ±1 day surrounding the point of first quarter [ paying 14:1 ]
• 1 chip on ±1 day surrounding the point of third quarter [ paying 14:1 ]
• 2 chips on ±1 day surrounding the lunar apogee [ paying 14:1 ]

Let's just assume for now that the chance of the earthquake is completely random (it isn't; there is a 2% extra chance at lunar perigee, but let's not worry about this for now).

The earthquake was (in GMT/UTC) at 13 June 2011 at 02:20.

The lunar perigee (closest point to earth in its orbit) was at Jun 12, 2011 01:43:00 AM GMT - miss by all of 37 minutes

The point of southern lunar declination was at Jun 15, 2011 8:54am GMT - miss by 1d 6h 34m.

The full moon was at June 15, 20:14 GMT (very shortly, along with the eclipse of course) - miss by 1d 18h 34m.

Darn. Didn't win any pots.

Let's widen the odds to ±2 days:

• 3 chips on ±2 days surrounding the lunar equinox [ paying 7:1 ]
• 3 chips on ±2 days surrounding the lunar perigee [ paying 7:1 ]
• 2 chips on ±2 days surrounding the point of maximum declination [ paying 7:1 ]
• 2 chips on ±2 days surrounding the full moon [ paying 7:1 ]
• 2 chips on ±2 day surrounding the new moon [ paying 7:1 ]
• 1 chip on ±2 days surrounding the point of first quarter [ paying 7:1 ]
• 1 chip on ±2 days surrounding the point of third quarter [ paying 7:1 ]
• 2 chips on ±2 days surrounding the lunar apogee [ paying 7:1 ]

The paid odds reduce, because the windows are wider.

The 3 chips on the perigee paid off, returning 21 chips. All other bets failed, returning nothing. 16 chips were laid down. Total profit: 5 chips.

What about widening the odds to ±3 days, making the odds 3.5:1?

Then, the 3 bet on the perigee, the 3 on the full moon, and the 2 bet on the declination all pay back. Again 16 chips were laid down. This pays back 28 chips, a more substantial profit, in fact almost doubling the outlay for this month.

I guess when gambling, sometimes you win. To enjoy it the most, you need to forget all the times that you went home empty-handed instead.